Using Causal Inference to Estimate the Impact of Tube Strikes on Cycling Usage in London

Causal inference is used to estimate the impact of London Tube strikes on Santander Cycle usage. The analysis utilizes open data from Transport for London, which records every bike journey from 2015 to 2025. The raw data is processed and aggregated from individual trips into a cell-day level dataset using an H3 hexagonal grid system. This process involves defining the outcome variable as the log of bike trips per station and the treatment variable as strike exposure based on proximity to affected tube lines, while also controlling for confounders like weather and seasonality.