Your AI Adoption Lift Is a Selection Effect

When a new, optional AI feature shows a massive boost in user retention, this is likely a misleading selection effect rather than the feature's true impact. The most engaged and successful customers are the first to adopt new tools, meaning they were already more likely to stick around regardless of the new feature. To find the real impact, you should analyze the arbitrary eligibility rules for the feature, such as a minimum account size. Comparing users just below this eligibility cutoff to those just above it creates a natural experiment, isolating the feature's effect from the users' pre-existing engagement.